Life Annuities  With
life annuities there is no risk of annuitants outliving
their resources since the payments continue as long
as they are needed. Second, the mortality assumptions
for the group of all structured settlement annuitants
are more favorable than for regular retirement annuities.
Third, claimants with potentially life-shortening medical
issues will be medically underwritten by the life companies
and provided with higher periodic payments for a given
premium investment. Medical underwriting resulting in
the use of a reduced life expectancy or "rated
age" to calculate future periodic payments can
significantly increase the benefits to a claimant from
a given settlement amount. For claimants with
either a normal or a medically adjusted life expectancy,
a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds will generally
be exhausted before the claimant's life expectancy if
distributions from the portfolio match the payments
from an annuity with a comparable cost. It follows that
there is more than a 50% probability that payments from
the portfolio that match the annuity's payments would
diminish or end while the claimant is still living.
Further analysis shows that payments from a portfolio
can only be 67% of the annuity amount in order for claimants
to have a 90% probability of not outliving their investments
from a lump sum cash settlement. Few claimants can afford
the risk from uncertain taxable returns combined with
longer than anticipated life expectancies. A structured
settlement annuity eliminates this risk by providing
claimants with guaranteed lifetime income for as long
as they might live. We welcome the opportunity
to illustrate this concept in more detail and to provide
detailed analysis for specific examples. Our comparisons
are based on analysis of historical security returns
and volatility using sophisticated forecasting methodology
known as "Monte Carlo" simulations. More detailed
information on our Monto Carlo analysis of the returns
from life annuities in comparison with the range of
possible and probable returns of alternative investments
can be found here. In
forecasting portfolio investment returns, we assume
that claimants will invest rationally and in efficiently
diversified portfolios with low expenses and that they
will earn market returns. Studies by Dalbar, Inc., a
widely respected financial research firm, have shown
that, in the past 20 years, the average investor earned
just 3.51% annually during a period when the S&P
500 increased at an annual rate of 12.98%. Certainly,
most claimants are unlikely to outperform average returns
and will, in almost all cases, not do nearly that well
after fees and costs are subtracted. Indeed, experience
has shown that most lump sum awards are dissipated long
before the claimants' financial needs end.
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